Facebook (FB) is one of the world’s largest technology and social media companies. As a publicly traded company on the NASDAQ exchange, Facebook’s share price is closely followed by investors, analysts and traders. With 2023 now underway, many are looking ahead to see what the future may hold for Facebook’s stock price in 2024 and beyond.
Facebook operates the eponymous social media platform with over 2.5 billion monthly active users globally, along with popular services like Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger. The company makes the majority of its revenue from digital advertising across its family of apps.
After a tough 2022 where its stock lost over 60% of its value, investors want to know if Facebook stock can rebound in 2024 or if economic and competitive headwinds will continue to pressure the share price.
This detailed outlook examines FB’s stock performance over the past 5 years, key factors that will impact its future valuation, 2024 predictions from top analysts, and concludes with an overall forecast for Facebook’s stock price in 2024.
Facebook’s Historical Share Price Performance (2018-2022)
Let’s first review how Facebook’s stock has performed over the past 5 years:
- 2018 saw FB shares lose over 25% as the company dealt with privacy issues and slowing user growth
- 2019 brought a strong rebound with 57% gains as earnings and users grew steadily
- 2020 was impacted by the pandemic but the shift to digital helped FB stock jump 33%
- Growth continued in 2021 with a 22% rise on surging ad revenues
- 2022 brought a disastrous decline, with the stock plunging 62% amidst macroeconomic challenges
Overall, despite volatility, Facebook stock gained over the 5 years from 2018-2021. However, 2022’s severe downturn has brought the share price back near 2018 levels.
Now let’s examine the key factors that will impact Facebook’s stock performance in 2024 and beyond.
Key Factors That Will Impact Facebook’s Share Price in 2024
Facebook’s stock price in 2024 will depend on a variety of internal and external factors. Here are some of the most important ones to watch:
1. User Growth and Engagement
Facebook’s revenue is directly tied to its user base. If monthly/daily active users grow, engagement increases and FB can monetize through more ads. But if growth stalls or declines, it would pressure the stock.
- Meta reported 1.98 billion daily active users in Q3 2022, up 3% vs 2021. But monthly users were 2.96 billion, having declined year-over-year.
- Competition from TikTok and slowing growth in North America could impact engagement going forward.
2. Ad Revenues and Pricing
Over 98% of Facebook’s revenues come from advertising. Macroeconomic trends, competition, targeting changes, and exchange rates all impact ad revenues.
- In Q3 2022, ad revenues fell 4% year-over-year to $27.2 billion as pricing declined. Macro pressures also impacted demand.
- Stricter ad targeting policies from Apple and privacy changes have significantly impacted Facebook’s ad capabilities, forcing it to focus more on AI recommendations.
3. Metaverse Investments
Facebook is aggressively investing in its metaverse vision, encompassing augmented and virtual reality. But these bets entail high costs without proven monetization.
- Meta’s Reality Labs segment, which includes its metaverse efforts, lost $3.7 billion in Q3 2022 alone.
- If metaverse investments don’t pay off in the coming years, it could negatively affect FB stock.
4. Regulatory Headwinds
As a dominant technology platform, Facebook faces significant regulatory risks from antitrust bills like in the EU and UK. Fines or enforced breakups could impact operations.
- In 2022, Facebook was fined $267 million in the EU for data usage violations. Regulatory scrutiny is increasing globally.
- While breakup threats may take time to materialize, they present an overhang on FB shares.
5. Management Execution
Mark Zuckerberg exerts control over Facebook and its future direction. Investor confidence in his leadership and execution will be key.
- Zuckerberg has staked Facebook’s future on the high-risk metaverse push, while scaling back other areas like hiring.
- If concerns grow over his focus and investments, it could undermine sentiment on the stock.
Let’s now review what Wall Street analysts are forecasting for Facebook’s stock price in 2024.
Facebook Stock Price Targets for 2024
Despite the stock losing over 60% of its value in 2022, most analysts still have buy ratings on FB shares with upside to their 12-month price targets. Here’s a sampling of 2024 forecasts:
|Firm||FB Price Target||Upside to Current|
|Bank of America||$160||36%|
- Most analysts see FB stock recovering to around $150-180 per share by end of 2024, representing 28% to 59% upside from current levels.
- The highest 12-month price target is from Morgan Stanley at $180. The lowest is from Barclays and Evercore at $150.
- The average price target from 46 analysts tracked by TipRanks is $170, suggesting around 45% upside potential.
Now let’s dive into some frequently asked questions about Facebook’s stock outlook for 2024.
FAQs on Facebook’s Stock Forecast for 2024
What are analysts predicting for Facebook’s revenue in 2024?
According to consensus estimates compiled by Visible Alpha, analysts expect Facebook’s revenue in 2024 to be around $135.5 billion, representing growth of 14% from estimated 2023 revenues of $118.4 billion.
This forecast factors in macroeconomic challenges continuing to constrain ad spending in 2023, before a rebound in 2024. It also assumes modest user growth and stable average revenue per user (ARPU) over the next 2 years.
Could Facebook’s stock price return to its all-time highs in 2024?
Facebook stock reached an all-time high of around $384 in September 2021 before declining over 60% to $125 currently.
For FB shares to return to all-time highs above $380+ in 2024, it would likely require flawless execution combined with a supportive macro environment. Analysts view this outcome as unlikely over the next 1-2 years.
More realistically, if metaverse investments begin paying off, ad revenues stabilize, and user growth recovers, FB stock could potentially trade up to $200-$250 levels by end of 2024. But regaining prior highs seems like a stretch in the near term.
What role will metaverse investments play in Facebook’s stock performance?
Metaverse initiatives under its Reality Labs segment are integral to Facebook’s future vision. However, these investments have also generated considerable operating losses in 2022, over $9 billion year-to-date.
If Reality Labs losses continue mounting into 2023 without proof that metaverse efforts can eventually monetize at scale, it could create concerns on Wall Street over capital allocation. This scenario would likely weigh on FB stock.
Conversely, if signs emerge by end of 2023 that metaverse investments are gaining traction via revenue-generating hardware sales, creator monetization and platform stickiness, it would boost confidence in Facebook’s strategy and outlook. That could provide meaningful upside catalyst for shares in 2024.
Could Facebook get acquired or go private?
Some speculate that if FB stock falls further, large tech companies with lots of cash like Apple, Microsoft or Google could explore acquiring Facebook. However, antitrust scrutiny makes such a deal unlikely currently.
There is also periodic speculation that Facebook could go private, considering Zuckerberg’s control over voting shares. But the regulatory hurdles and massive required financing of over $300 billion make a leveraged buyout unfeasible at this time.
Absent these unlikely scenarios, Facebook’s share price in 2024 will mainly depend on the company’s own execution and delivering on its strategic roadmap focused on AI and the metaverse.
What are the biggest risks to Facebook’s stock price outlook?
Some of the major risks that could undermine Facebook’s stock performance through 2024 include:
- Prolonged macroeconomic downturn further dampening digital ad spending
- Intensifying competition from TikTok affecting user engagement/growth
- Continued user shift toward Reels/video decimating ad pricing and revenues
- Mounting Reality Labs losses with no viable metaverse monetization
- Heightened regulatory restrictions on ads privacy and social media business practices
Any of these factors could result in declining revenues, compressed margins and reduced earnings. That would likely pressure FB’s stock valuation and share price despite its current discounted levels.
How important will Meta’s Q4 2022 earnings be for projecting 2024 outlook?
Meta’s Q4 earnings report on February 1, 2023 will provide critical insights into revenue momentum, Reality Labs losses, user trends and 2023 guidance.
If Meta can show stabilization in the core Facebook ad business, optimism on metaverse traction, and continued expense discipline, it would reassure investors. That could drive FB stock higher and set up a more constructive outlook for 2024.
Conversely, any major misses or weak forward guidance in the Q4 report would reinforce concerns about Meta’s growth prospects. That would likely result in further downside for the stock and a more cautious view on 2024 performance.
Conclusion: Moderately Bullish on FB Stock for 2024
In summary, analysts and investors have become increasingly cautious on Facebook stock after its disastrous 2022 performance. However, negative sentiment appears to be largely priced in at current levels around $125.
If Meta can deliver stable revenues with disciplined cost management, show promise for its metaverse investments without runaway losses, and regain some user growth momentum in 2023, FB stock could stage a meaningful recovery rally in 2024.
Upside catalysts include ad spending stabilization as macro pressures potentially ease, renewed user engagement through AI recommendations, and initial metaverse monetization sparking optimism. Continued buybacks should also support share price.
While risks remain around regulation, competition and execution, at 10x forward earnings Facebook stock is pricing in many of these challenges.
The most likely outcome appears to be FB shares trading rangebound in 2023 before recovering into the $150-$180 range by end of 2024. This would represent a potential 25% to 50% upside from current beaten-down levels.
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