Anyone who has spent considerable time trading forex will tell you that there’s no “holy grail,” or one indicator, method, strategy, or system that would yield you forex trading profits 100% of the time. In fact, consistently profitable traders will more likely tell you that losing is as much part of trading as winning.
But since shady brokers like to foster the idea to get people to open forex accounts and hope springs eternal for human beings, there’s no shortage of trading amateurs and pros alike who continue to believe in the one-pan plan to profitability.
Here are three reasons why you’ll have better luck being the first man (or woman) to reach the sun than finding a “holy grail” for forex trading:
1. No one can prepare for ALL market uncertainties.
One of the advantages of trading forex is that the bajillion factors that move currencies make it hard for any individual or group to influence price action for prolonged periods of time.
Unfortunately, this also makes it difficult for traders to predict future price action.
Unless you gain a superpower that lets you know what central bankers and economic influencers will say ahead of time; warn you of the next natural disasters and terrorist attack, or prepare for similar circumstances, then you’ll unlikely to find a holy grail anytime soon.
2. Humans move the market
At least for now. Though mechanical trading systems, in general, have gained popularity over the last few years, humans still control the ebbs and flows of the forex market.
Human behavior is one of the reasons why we still see trading opportunities, where price doesn’t reflect its value based on available data and existing market themes.
Mike may be interpreting an economic release in a different light and place orders in the opposite direction of Harvey’s.
Elliot, who handles a corporate account, may hold on to a losing position rather than close a losing trade.
Multiply these everyday scenarios and we get an unpredictable mix of potential price reaction.
3. No strategy is profitable in ALL trading conditions
Those who have spent some time with markets know that, like human behavior, there are patterns that tend to repeat themselves on the charts.
EUR/USD could react to Stochastic signals and trade on a 100-pip range for days. Likewise, AUD/JPY could be counted on to bounce lower from a 100 SMA retest.
But what if the pattern ends and price transitions into another pattern?
For example, EUR/USD could suddenly break from its range and keep stochastic in the overbought area as the pair switches to a trending setting. Stochastic, which had been reliable, is now useless while trending strategies start to make sense again.
Most trading systems only work well until the price shifts into another pattern. The continuous shifts in trading conditions and the unpredictable timing of when they occur make it difficult for traditional technical tools to be reliable all day every day.
It takes discretion to spot shifts in patterns and to identify which strategies would yield profits.
Just because there’s no holy grail doesn’t mean you can’t be profitable trading forex. There are folks who are able to trade full-time and even more who are part-time traders and content with being consistently profitable.
The key is to control your risk. Since you can’t eliminate it, the least you can do is 1) fully understand how margin trading works and 2) learn proper risk management.
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